Understanding China's Economic Indicators: Translating the Data into Investment Opportunities

In Understanding China’s Economic Indicators, leading economist and Wall Street Journal columnist Thomas M. Orlik introduces 35 of China's most significant economic statistics. Orlik explains why each indicator matters, how it is collected and computed, and its impact on equity, commodity, and currency markets.

 

As China has emerged as a central player in the global economy, more and more investors are seeking profitable opportunities there. To choose the right investments, it's crucial to understand China's economic environment–and that means finding, interpreting, and utilizing China's growing base of economic indicators. Orlik helps investors make sense of data on everything from Chinese GDP growth to inflation, unemployment, bond yields, electricity production, and aircraft passenger numbers. He draws on the best information supplied by the Chinese government's statistical agency, ministries, and industry associations, as well as private sources. Each indicator is clearly described, along with a practical discussion of its implications for investors.

Acknowledgments     x

About the Author     xiii

CHAPTER 1 Introduction     1

The Crush     1

How Reliable Are China’s Economic Statistics?      3

A Month in China’s Economic Data     6

Waiting for Release of the Data—or Not     7

A Year in China’s Economic Data     8

How This Book Works     11

CHAPTER 2 National Output     13

Gross Domestic Product     13

Industrial Value Added     24

Fiscal Revenue and Expenditure     31

Freight and Passenger Traffic     36

China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing’s Purchasing Managers Index     40

HSBC Markit Purchasing Managers Index     45

Market News International China Business Survey     48

National Bureau of Statistics Leading Economic Indicator     53

Conference Board Leading Economic Indicator     58

Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development Composite Leading Indicator     62

CHAPTER 3 Investment and Real Estate     67

Fixed Asset Investment     67

Real Estate Prices, Investment, Sales, and Construction     75

China Real Estate Index System     84

CHAPTER 4 Household Sector     89

Retail Sales     89

Urban and Rural Household Surveys     94

National Bureau of Statistics Consumer Confidence Index     101

INTAGE China Consumer Sentiment Survey     105

CHAPTER 5 External Sector     109

Trade     109

U.S. Import Price Index     121

Foreign Direct Investment     125

Balance of Payments     130

Foreign Exchange and Gold Reserves     136

Treasury International Capital System     142

CHAPTER 6 Labor Markets     149

Urban Wages     149

Unemployment     158

Public Employment Services Labor Market Supply-and-Demand Situation     162

CHAPTER 7 Prices     169

Consumer Price Index     169

Indices of Urban Residents’ Confidence on Income and Price Level     177

Producer Price Index     181

Bond Market Yield Curve     185

CHAPTER 8 Financial Indicators     193

Sources and Uses of Funds of Financial Institutions     193

Money Supply     200

Nonperforming Loans     204

China Foreign Exchange Trading System Central Parities     209

Hong Kong Banking System Yuan Deposits     215

People’s Bank of China Reports     218

Index     225